New Mexico health officials warn 'unsustainable' increase in COVID-19 threatens hospitals

SANTA FE - With New Mexico nearing a "tipping point" that could overwhelm hospitals in the coming weeks, state Human Services Secretary David Scrase warned residents Thursday "to stay in your COVID bubble and keep it as small as possible."

New Mexico also announced a new daily case record with 1,082 new cases confirmed Thursday. 

Scrase led a livestreamed video conference on the state's data modeling that focused on growing pressure on the state's hospitals. He was joined by Presbyterian Healthcare Services chief medical officer Jason Mitchell and David Gonzalez, CMO at Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center in Santa Fe. 

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COVID-19 spread has increased in every region of the state following Labor Day weekend at the beginning of September, and with the sharp overall increase, hospitalizations have far surpassed the state's previous high back in April.

Scrase reported that the statewide seven-day rolling average rose by 15 percent in the past week, with major metropolitan areas around Albuquerque and Las Cruces the hardest hit.  

For Doña Ana County residents, living adjacent to El Paso, Texas, which is already experiencing a crisis at its hospitals, Scrase said, "This is not a good time for anyone to go to El Paso for any reason."

Following the conference, the New Mexico health department announced 1,082 new cases for the day, including 260 in Bernalillo County and 248 in Doña Ana County. Luna County, which has seen growing spread in recent weeks, reported 106 new cases. 

Pressure on New Mexico hospitals

With 323 people hospitalized in New Mexico with COVID-19 Thursday, the DOH said 80 percent of the state's adult beds were full, and 75 percent of its ICU beds. 

Adding to the pressure on hospitals, more ventilators are currently in use, and medical facilities are handling growing need with tighter staff and the need for sterilizing and reusing some personal protective equipment, the health officials reported. 

Mitchell explained the state's capacity for intensive care units using three figures. As a baseline, he said 290 ICU beds are available statewide, but with contingency plans in place to expand up to 439. 

Beyond that point, Mitchell said the state would move to crisis standards of care, providing up to 623 ICU beds but through measures that could include sharing ventilators and other equipment, serving patients in mobile hospital units outdoors, and presenting obstacles for other healthcare needs including trauma or childbirth. 

Moreover, with staffing already tight, extraordinary measures such as recruiting retired physicians would be required to provide care to patients in those additional beds. 

Avoiding that frightening scenario, the physicians warned, required immediate modifications in behavior. Without intervention, Mitchell said New Mexico hospitals could exceed the contingency level in mid-November and reach crisis standards in December.

He called the trend "a serious call to action for us as a community."

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The public guidance remained the same, with all residents urged to stay home as much as possible, wear a mask over nose and mouth on essential business, keeping a distance of at least six feet from other people and washing hands frequently with soap. Scrase noted that the coronavirus can live on the surface of human skin for nine hours. 

The physicians also urged residents to get flu shots if they had not already, and Mitchell added a warning that rapid tests tend to be less reliable on subjects who are not showing symptoms of COVID-19, missing approximately 25 percent of cases. 

"If you have a rapid test you probably still need to quarantine if you've had an exposure," Mitchell said. 

To that, Scrase added that if one is feeling unwell at the time of their test, they should quarantine themselves at least until they get their test result back. COVID-19 is highly contagious and can be spread for days even by people not showing symptoms, putting family members and coworkers at risk. 

Scrase revealed that in a recent survey of New Mexicans, 55 percent of the 300 people interviewed admitted they had recently visited an enclosed space with more than 10 people, despite public health orders forbidding social gatherings of more than five. 

Deaths attributed to the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are accelerating as well as the state approaches its thousandth fatal case. 

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With Halloween landing on Saturday night, the physicians urged New Mexicans to refrain from trick or treating, with Gonzalez suggesting households engage in home-based activities such as candy scavenger hunts. 

"We must take care of each other by reducing exposure," he said. 

Algernon D'Ammassa can be reached at 575-541-5451, adammassa@lcsun-news.com or @AlgernonWrites on Twitter.