St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres Game 1 odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark
USA Today Sportsbookwire

The St. Louis Cardinals head West to start their best-of-three NL Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres Wednesday. Game 1 is scheduled to start at 5:08 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Below, we analyze the Cardinals-Padres MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Cardinals at Padres: Projected starting pitchers

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim vs. RHP Chris Paddack

Kim: 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 39 IP over 8 games (7 starts).

  • This is Kim's first season in MLB so he has never made a postseason start.
  • 2020 road splits: 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 15 K and 9 BB over 4 starts.

Paddack: 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 59 IP over 12 starts.

  • This is Paddack's first postseason appearance and start.
  • 2020 home splits: 3-2 with a 3.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 34 K and 8 BB in 36 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

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Cardinals at Padres: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Cardinals

  • RP John Gant (groin) out

Padres

  • C Jason Castro (jaw) probable

Cardinals at Padres: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

The Padres (-162) were one of the surprise teams of 2020-going 37-23 overall-and are playing in their first postseason since 2006. Paddack is not San Diego's first choice as Game 1 starter, as Cy Young-candidate Dinelson Lamet and trade deadline acquisition Mike Clevinger are on the injury report.

The CARDINALS (+145) limped into the playoffs, going 4-4 in their last eight games, and are playing October baseball for the second straight season after missing the playoffs for three straight years from 2016-2018.

When I looked a little deeper at the home/road splits for each starter, I started to lean Cardinals (+145). Paddack's numbers are better at home but he's only pitched against one playoff team in six of those starts and three of Kim's four road starts came against playoff competition.

St. Louis has a championship pedigree and players with multiple titles. Also, Kim being a 13-year veteran (12 of those years in his native South Korea) plays a factor. San Diego doesn't have any game experience against Kim, who relies on painting the corners more than overpowering hitters.

A "lean" is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Ugggghhh. Since I lean St. Louis on the money line, I should be on the Cardinals +1.5 (-150) but it's too expensive for me. I am PASSING ON THE RUN LINE and would rather roll the dice on an outright Cardinals upset.

Over/Under (O/U)

I like the UNDER 8.5 (-110) in Cardinals-Padres Game 1. St. Louis has a 4-12-1 Over/Under record as a road dog and the Under is 7-0-1 in the Cardinals' last eight games as an underdog. For as much love as Slam Diego and its incredible lineup gets, the Padres are only 10-14-1 O/U as a home favorite.

While I think the Cardinals will come up with timely hits to push them ahead, they still have a bottom-10 lineup in most categories and the game should go Under if they are going to win.

New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Under 8.5 (-110) pays $100 in profit if the Cardinals and Padres combine to score 8 or fewer runs.

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